(ノ・∀・)ノ try VineVineVine.com fun and interesting vines

Jonathan Golub: No reason to worry about a recession

Free Button: Daily News (all buttons)

Free Button: Daily News (all buttons)
Free Button: Latest Business Insider Videos

  Info

Description

RBC Capital Market's Chief Economist, Jonathan Golub, sat down with Business Insider CEO Henry Blodget on this week's episode of The Bottom Line. Golub says all signs point to no recession. Following is a transcript of the video.Blodget: People talk about the market climbing a wall of worry. I am a worrier-in-chief, I have tons of worries that I focus on. You say, “Henry there is nothing to worry about.” Golub: Listen, there’s always something to worry about. But I think people are working way too hard to come up with an argument when we have, you know, the Fed told us that the chance of a recession in the next year is 6%. In the ninth year of a recovery, that's, you know, that's crazy. That means that the economy is on very solid footing . Earnings in the ninth year of a recovery are now re-accelerating and stronger, and not only in the US — we're seeing this everywhere. So, the backdrop is really fantastic.Blodget: Lets talk about a recession. What I have learned in 20 years of being an analyst and watching Wall Street and so forth is that recessions are screamingly obvious in hindsight but when you are looking forward they're extremely difficult to predict. So, the measure you just cited about the Fed saying, "Hey, there's only a 6% chance of recession," is that actually predictive? Are you comfortable?Golub: If i was using it by itself it would be helpful but not enough. Here are the things that we know: When you have —before going into a recession, job growth actually declines. So, companies lay off more workers than they add. We’re adding something like 175,000 or 200,000 jobs a month, so about over 2 million new jobs a year. That's not remotely close to what would happen if you were to have a recession. Housing activity, not robust, but there's more people buying housing than not. You would see that go in reverse. So housing starts would fall off, we're not seeing that. Manufacturing data is expanding around the world, that doesn't happen. So, if you look at when RBC puts out a scorecard of seven of these items and if even one or two of them say you're not going to have a recession, you don't typically get one and six of the seven are saying perfect green light one of them is a yellow it really looks very, very positive.--------------------------------------------------Follow BI Video on Twitter: http://bit.ly/1oS68ZsFollow BI on Facebook: http://bit.ly/1W9Lk0nRead more: http://www.businessinsider.com/--------------------------------------------------Business Insider is the fastest growing business news site in the US. Our mission: to tell you all you need to know about the big world around you. The BI Video team focuses on technology, strategy and science with an emphasis on unique storytelling and data that appeals to the next generation of leaders – the digital generation.

Tags

Business Insider The Bottom Line Jonathan Golub RBC Capital Markets Recession Equity Wall Street
  Email Video to Friends   Receive Emails for Similar Videos

Email:

  Repeat and Loop Video   Link to Video   Create Short URL  Publish Text About This Video   Share on Facebook, Twitter, and more
  See Recommended Videos For You
👕 Try MeTee.com: publish meme shirts in seconds and earn a commission forever

Related

  RBC's Jonathan Golub Sees No Signs of a Recession   THE BOTTOM LINE: Bitcoin's surge and an interview with a top Wall Street strategist   21 Things Successful Entrepreneurs Never Worry About   RBC's Golub Says Safety Stocks Are Getting Beat Up   Reason to worry over Basirhat violence, says Amartya Sen   George Mason's Donald Boudreaux addresses trade deficit myths   Paul Ryan: No Reason For Sessions To Recuse Himself Unless Investigation Is About Him (3/2/2017)   Westfield water worries persist despite assurance of quality   RBC's Jonathan Golub Says the Fed Needs to Get on With It   Not a Great Time to Invest in Stock Market, Says Shiller   Floating specks in your eyes   OPINION: It’s the economists, stupid   RBC's Golub Says EM Has Surprised Since Election   1Terrifying Warning Just Released About What’s About To Happen On October 9 For SICKENING Reason   Parents worry about King City High students amid shootings   Republicans excited about Trump -- and worry about what he'll say next   Straight Talk with Professor Stephen Golub (PART 3)   Straight Talk with Professor Steven Golub (PART 3)   Straight Talk with Professor Steven Golub (PART 1)   Straight Talk with Professor Steven Golub (PART 2)   Straight Talk with Professor Stephen Golub (PART 1)   Straight Talk with Professor Stephen Golub (PART 2)   Vernon Smith and Steve Gjerstad on Housing and the Never-Ending Recession   Terrifying Warning Just Released About What’s About To Happen On October 9 For SICKENING Reason   #theTrend: Fena Gitu on her journey to being the most sought after female performer in Kenya   #theTrend: Fena Gitu on her journey to be the most sought after female performer in Kenya   Fena Gitu on her journey to be the most sought after female performer in Kenya   South Africa Currency Woes: Rand dips on fears recession may lead to further downgrades   Camila Cabello's First Solo Song Title LEAKS   HYPOCRISY See Who Is About to Shut the Government Down and the Stunning Reason Why!   Jeff Golub RIP Dead 2015 - On The Beach   Politico to GOP 2012 hopefuls: Don't worry about NBC/MSNBC/Chris Matthews, there's no bias   It's Hard to Gross Out a Libertarian: Jonathan Haidt on Sex, Politics, and Disgust   Fmr AmEx CEO: Major Underlying Problems in U.S. Economy   It's Hard to Gross Out a Libertarian: Jonathan Haidt on Sex, Politics, and Disgust   Mueller’s Russia Investigators: Conflicts of interest?   FEMA Chief: No time to worry about vacancies   Trump Tweets DACA Recipients 'Have Nothing to Worry About'   Pakistan Airlines to Stop Mumbai-Karachi flight from 11 May   Peter Schiff - The Fed Unspun: The Other Side of the Story   Kings' Don't Worry About It longest running no. 1 single on NZ's top 20 charts   Don't worry, she's still good. No need for new tires here!   The Measure That Says Stocks Are Way Overvalued | Trading Nation | CNBC   Should Guys Freak Out About Their Penis Size?   Perrie Edwards Pens HEARTFELT Message to Fans After Hospital Scare   Firefighters wait to hear about hep A exposure   1-on-1 with Chase Elliott   Women hit Times Square wearing only body paint - New York Post   Questions remain about city manager's firing   I-Team: Wiretapping Charges Dropped Against HR Employees Who Planted Hidden Camera   Tyga’s Legal Woes Settled During Vacation With Kylie Jenner!   Chemicals In Food Packaging - Any Reason To Worry? - Futuris   I believe that everything happens for a reason agreed ?   There is a reason why they say to always keep your eyes on the road!   Finance official allays fears over Mindanao martial law   Worry About A Global Correction: Madhav Dhar   What's Right With Our Schools - Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act   NASA’s Trump-inspired moon mission is still looking for a reason to exist   Do you think Uganda has any valid reason to worry about Kenya's up coming elections   Camila Cabello’s First Solo Single EXPOSED – Kim Kardashian SHUTS Down Haters (DHR)   How 9/11 Ground the American Economy to a Halt (2001)   తెలుగు రాష్ట్రాలకు జీఎస్‌టీతో కష్టాలు   Irma Gave Liberals A Very Good Reason To Whine After What It Did To Trump’s House   No need to worry : Sushma Swaraj   Target Forgets to Activate Gift Cards on the Heels of Credit Card Hacking   3 Reasons Public Sector Employees are Killing the Economy   Guam Gov: There's concern, worry, no panic about N. Korea   Channel Update: YouTube Gave me a Community Guidline Strike?!   Channel Update: YouTube Gave me a Commuinity Guidline Strike?!   Channel Update: YouTube Gave me a Community Guideline Strike?!   Wimbledon 2017: Venus Williams cries about crash in which man died   Is Reason Enough? Why Your Opponents Won't Listen   Straight Talk with Prof Stephen Golub   Guam Gov: There's concern, worry, no panic about N. Korea   Biofilm: A New (Gross) Thing to Worry About

Popular Today

  Is Kush Tracey still in Gospel or back to where she started?   Worth Remembering   Postal Worker Braves House Fire To Warn Customer Of Flames   Karan Johar Gets Candid   美参院少数党领袖舒默要求审查中国电信公司   Union football players surprised with new jerseys   Murad Saeed Blasting Speech in National Assembly today | 19 September 2019 | 92NewsHD   More Than 1,000 Rescues, Evacuations as Imelda Soaks Texas   WTO spokesperson hails China's active role in WTO   Henry Cejudo Is ‘Disappointed’ Fighters Not Stepping Up And ‘Talking Smack’ - MMA Fighting   New Worldwide Study Reveals Surprising Misconceptions Of Alzheimer's Disease   Troy Dye: "I always appreciate good competition."   Four MPs including Junet and Jumwa acquitted over 2016 incitement charges   Hundreds join global climate strike in downtown Louisville   AMLO visita el Hospital Rural Acanceh, en Yucatán   Remembering solders who were prisoners of war or missing in action   HP Elite Dragonfly Laptop | Intel 8th Gen Core i7 vPro CPU | 16GB RAM | 2TB SSD | $1,549 approx   Parliament to speed up process of replacing IEBC commissioners   Watch Chelsea coach Josh Lucas discuss win over Ypsilanti Lincoln   Sau Baat Ki Ek Baat | आज सुबह की बड़ी ख़बरें | September 21, 2019 | Kishore Ajwani   ‘Ema’ Star Gael Garcia Bernal Says He’s ‘Always Waiting for That Phone Call’ From Pablo Larrain   Assembly Polls In Maharashtra, Haryana On October 21, Results On October 24   Nikolaj Coster-Waldau on Game of Thrones Finale, Fans & Emmys   Keller @ Large: Can Elizabeth Warren Make It As The Democratic Nominee?   Con bienestar: Migrañas, el enemigo invisible   Minecraft test   En Asie, des volontaires participent au World CleanUp Day | AFP   Italy: Drawings from 'Monster of Florence' go on display in Venice   Trump Plans Military Strike Over Weekend!! Iran Waits..   UK: Activists strike against climate change in London march   Detienen a presunto asesino de fotógrafo de Discovery Channel   Katy-area road rage shooting lands man in hospital; suspect at large   Nyberg - Rose Vineyard and Winery   FNL Game of the Week: McFarland vs. Wasco   Sweden's Social Democrats seek deal with opposition to form government   Red Wings’ Jeff Blashill on Moritz Seider, Filip Zadina, Adam Erne   Cabello: Anzoátegui será el modelo para el resto de los estados, un buen dirigente debe dar la cara   Gardner Minshew Was The Only Good Thing About Thursday Night Football | The Jim Rome Show   Game of the Week pregame primer: Columbiana hosts undefeated Southern in conference opener   News Headlines | 3 PM | 21 September 2019 | 92NewsHD   Judicial Watch sues for records that allegedly started Spygate   Longmeadow vs Agawam Field Hockey   Down to the wire: Crestview downs LaBrae in WKBN Volleyball Game of the Week thriller   Sheppard house ‘not remotely’ the same thing as Ihumātao - Winston Peters   10歳仲邑菫初段、公式戦初の男性棋士から3勝目(19/09/16)   Pro Pets: David Kaplan   Didi Gregorius Says Mike Trout Deserves AL MVP, Have You Seen His Stats?! | TMZ Sports   Patriots Release Antonio Brown: Mike Lombardi Full Reaction   Fifth suspect arrested in hours-long SWAT standoff   'Abominable' Star Chloe Bennet On Diverse Casting In Hollywood | PeopleTV   View All Today's Popular Videos