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Understanding uncertainty in climate models

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Robustness of the atmospheric circulation response to climate change: In this Grantham Special Lecture, Professor Ted Shepherd, Grantham Chair in Climate ...

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imperial college london science university UK climate change atmospheric physics lecture physics United Kingdom (Country) energy Power Global Change Warming compassionate considerate empathetic forgiving generous kindly perceptive sympathetic discerning forbearing kind patient sensitive responsive disagreeable inconsiderate mean merciless selfish unfeeling unsympathetic impatient intolerant insight perception knowledge intelligence sense awareness realization grasp judgment recognition grip intuition sharpness wit intellect discrimination acumen knowing ken assimilation decipherment reason penetration perspicacity apprehension discernment mastery savvy perceptiveness percipience apperception perceptivity prehension disagreement misunderstanding stupidity mistake disbelief misinterpretation ignorance impression interpretation idea sympathy meaning opinion conclusion view conception viewpoint purport inkling significance signification import message estimation acceptation notion significancy intendment insignificance pact accord harmony deal concord handshake common view meeting of minds abilities aptitude capability capacity competence competency comprehension dexterity endowment facility faculty might potentiality qualification resourcefulness skill strength talent understanding paralysis incapability ineptness impotence inanity inadequacy clumsiness limitation incapacity incompetence inability weakness lack ability acquaintance cognizance conversance familiarity fellowship intimacy relationship unfamiliarity strangeness stranger acquaintances acuity acuteness astuteness brains brilliance cleverness cunning farsightedness good taste guile ingenuity keenness perspicuity refinement sagacity sensitivity shrewdness smartness smarts vision wisdom obtuseness denseness insensitivity agreement acknowledgment adjudication affidavit approval arrangement assent avowal bargain bond cartel charter codicil compact compromise confirmation covenant indenture lease negotiation note oath okay piece of paper protocol settlement stipulation the nod transaction treaty writ veto denial rejection refusal Understanding took an L ambiguity ambivalence anxiety concern confusion distrust mistrust skepticism suspicion trouble uneasiness unpredictability worry bewilderment conjecture contingency dilemma disquiet doubtfulness dubiety guesswork hesitancy hesitation incertitude inconclusiveness indecision irresolution misgiving mystification oscillation perplexity puzzle puzzlement qualm quandary query reserve scruple vagueness wonder lack of confidence questionableness assurance belief calmness certainty clarity composure confidence contentment faith happiness peace trust reality solution sureness truth definiteness security anagram double meaning double-entendre doubt dubiousness enigma equivocacy equivocality equivocation indefiniteness indeterminateness obscurity polysemousness polysemy tergiversation uncertainty unclearness explicitness lucidity clearness ambiguousness cloudiness imprecision murkiness nebulousness obscureness confusion dilemma fluctuation gingerliness haze iffiness irresoluteness muddle tentativeness unsureness decisiveness all-overs angst ants in pants apprehension botheration butterflies care cold sweat creeps disquietude distress downer drag dread flap foreboding fretfulness fuss goose bumps heebie-jeebies jitters misery nail-biting needles nervousness panic pins and needles restlessness solicitude suffering suspense sweat unease watchfulness willies worriment peacefulness blessing ease tranquility nonchalance advantage joy collectedness calm bet action ante betting chance down on hazard long shot lot lottery odds odds on parlay play pledge plunge pot raffle random shot risk shot shot in the dark speculation stake sweepstakes venture wager equivocalness muddiness opaqueness took an L humidity temperature altitude aridity clime conditions latitude atmospheric conditions characteristic weather meteorologic conditions meteorological character atmosphere mood trend environment surroundings feeling medium milieu disposition ambience temper tendency ambient mise en scène ambiance climate environs setting air aura background character color feel flavor impression local color place property quality scene semblance sense space spirit taste tone backdrop circumstances context domain element encompassment entourage habitat hood jungle locale neck of the woods neighborhood scenery situation status stomping ground terrain territory turf zoo environments localities area location vicinity took an L Climate Cli-mate copy figure image painting photograph picture portrait cartoon clone copycat ditto dummy duplicate effigy engraving facsimile figurine illustration layout look-alike miniature mock-up paste-up pocket print relief representation ringer setup sketch statue statuette tracing dead ringer game plan knock-off spitting image visual being entity original photographer pattern symbol ideal design prototype type nonesuch embodiment touchstone archetype paragon apotheosis quintessence exemplar hero saint emblem criterion epitome paradigm mold nonpareil gauge beau ideal role model lodestar mirror guess nude mannequin manikin subject sitter style form variety kind mode configuration mark create fashion cast base plan carve sculpt represent wear sport parade sit show off set example Model took an L model models royal stately sovereign domineering kingly lordly magisterial majestic common authoritative administrative approved bureaucratic canonical departmental ex cathedra ex officio executive imperial lawful legal legitimate mandatory ruling sanctioned supreme democratic beard Santa Claus Vandyke bristles brush five-o-clock shadow fuzz goatee muttonchops stubble dignified aristocratic august courtly decorous distinguished distingué eminent formal grand grave great highbrow highfalutin' imperious lofty magnificent nifty noble proud refined regal reserved respected solemn somber superior upright poor bad ordinary unimpressive unrefined undignified indecorous dishonorable insignificant informal ignoble arrogant autocratic bossy coercive crack the whip despotic dictatorial egotistic high-handed imperative in driver's seat insolent iron-handed on high horse overbearing peremptory tyrannical yielding surrendering humble submissive servile highborn blue-blooded elite gentle highbred patrician queenly thoroughbred titled upper-class wellborn blood full-blooded graded papered pedigree pedigreed pure-blooded pureblood pureblooded purebred took an L Imperial association institute lyceum organization seminary university alma mater brainery halls of ivy halls of knowledge academia academe academic community academicians college school academic book-learned bookish collegiate erudite intellectual learned pedantic scholarly scholastic studious simple practical plain ordinary untaught ignorant academy institution old school place of graduation place of matriculation faculties academics advisers body clinic corps department employees literati mentors pedagogues personnel professorate profs researchers scholars society staff tutors workers students need ineptness lack incompetence inability faculty higher education graduate school tertiary school College took an L london took an L London art discipline education information learning skill system technique branch erudition lore scholarship wisdom body of knowledge disorder disorganization ignorance culture ability accomplishment address aestheticism capacity civilization class courtesy cultivation delicacy dignity discrimination dress elegance elevation enlightenment experience fashion finish gentility good taste grace improvement kindness manners nobility perception polish politeness practice proficiency refinement savoir-faire science tact training urbanity ineptness tactlessness rudeness impoliteness inelegance roughness crudeness bad manners clumsiness hurt harm incompetence coarseness inexperience inability cultures apprenticeship background book learning brainwashing breeding catechism coaching direction drilling edification guidance inculcation indoctrination learnedness literacy nurture pedagogy preparation propagandism proselytism reading rearing schooling study teaching tuition tutelage tutoring neglect destruction bookishness brains intellectuality knowledge letters pedantry savvy scholarliness studiousness advice ammo break chapter and verse clue confidence counsel cue data dirt dope dossier earful illumination info inside story instruction intelligence leak lowdown material message network notice notification orientation propaganda report scoop score tidings tip what's what whole story word question silence accomplishments acquaintance apprehension attainments awareness cognition comprehension consciousness discernment doctrine dogma expertise facts familiarity goods grasp insight judgment know-how light observation philosophy picture power principles recognition substance theory misunderstanding stupidity impotence unbelief weakness inanity took an L SCIENCE! Science academy educational institution college school institution academic book-learned bookish collegiate erudite intellectual learned pedantic scholarly scholastic studious university simple practical plain ordinary untaught ignorant alma mater old school place of graduation place of matriculation association brainery halls of ivy halls of knowledge institute lyceum organization seminary faculties academics advisers body clinic corps department employees literati mentors pedagogues personnel professorate profs researchers scholars society staff tutors workers students need ineptness lack incompetence inability faculty higher education graduate school tertiary school took an L University climate change took an L Climate change Climate Change adjustment advance development difference diversity innovation modification reversal revision revolution shift switch transformation transition variation about-face addition break compression contraction conversion correction distortion diversification metamorphosis modulation mutation novelty permutation reconstruction refinement remodeling surrogate tempering transmutation turn turnover variance variety vicissitude bill agreement uniformity dollar similarity sameness stagnation turnaround interchange exchange trade flip-flop swap quarters silver chicken feed pin money pocket money spending money copper pennies coins nickels dimes evolve reduce resolve reform vary transform shape adjust modify diminish fluctuate alter transmute naturalize reorganize replace renovate commute diverge redo remodel substitute regenerate alternate revolutionize modulate adapt translate mutate transpose metamorphose warp transfigure accommodate convert moderate vacillate veer merge recondition diversify temper remake make innovations make over restyle tamper with hold continue keep leave alone stay extend expand persist disarrange ruin destroy preserve stagnate remain increase grow reverse remove barter invert displace supplant transmit switch around 180 degree turn U-turn change change in direction changeabout double doubleback overturning policy change repeal retraction turnabout volte-face acclimate accustom come around comply conform familiarize fashion fit get act together get used to grow used to habituate harmonize make match play the game prepare qualify readjust reconcile revise roll with punches shape up square suit tailor unfit disturb disagree neglect disorder dislocate reject refuse adapting affect act on impinge impress induce influence inspire interest involve move overcome perturb prevail regard relate stir sway touch upset discourage order surrender calm dissuade affects caponize castrate desexualize emasculate fix geld mutilate neuter spay unsex sustain retain maintain took an L changes Change climatic meteorological aerial airy barometrical baroscopic ethereal down-to-earth grounded hazy misty aeriform aeronautical atmospheric birdlike flying lofty pneumatic up above vaporous ground blowy breezy drafty exposed fluttering fresh gaseous gusty light out-of-doors uncluttered ventilated well-ventilated windy heavy stuffy oppressive closed close burdensome agile buoyant crumbly dainty delicate downy easy effervescent featherweight feathery filmy flimsy floatable floating fluffy friable frothy gossamery graceful imponderous inconsequential insubstantial light-footed lightweight lithe little loose meager nimble petty porous portable sandy sheer slender slight small spongy sprightly sylphlike thin tissuelike trifling trivial unheavy unsubstantial weightless solemn serious grave laborious difficult weighted brunette obscure gloomy dim darkened dark black significant strong strict rough coarse thick fat important big dusky clumsy useful large lighter lightest aid alleviation antidote assistance catholicon corrective countermeasure drug elixir fix healing help medicament medication medicine nostrum panacea placebo proprietary recovery redress remedy reparation therapeutic treatment counteractant counteragent elixir vitae healing agent medicant pharmacon quick fix restora-tive blockage harm hindrance hurt injury obstruction stop hit dope opiate poison dose treat benumb blunt deaden desensitize knock out medicate narcotize numb relax sedate stupefy analgize anesthetize dope up dose up neglect ignore natural science biology chemistry physics pure science science of matter took an L Physics address discourse instruction allocution disquisition harangue oration pitch soapbox spiel talk chalk talk pep talk sermon rebuke scolding going-over censure castigation preaching reprimand reproof dressing-down chiding moralism preachment talking-to praise compliment expound teach recite orate spout deliver declaim speak prelect get on a soapbox give a talk hold forth be quiet listen admonish scold chide preach sermonize flay berate moralize rate reprove tell off exprobate give going-over give piece of mind rank on flatter laud approach bespeak call deliver speech deliver talk discuss give speech give talk greet hail lecture memorialize pontificate root for stump take the floor pass overlook slight shun ignore disregard cut avoid refrain dissertation addressed addresses addressing took an L Lecture concerted consolidated cooperative homogeneous integrated linked unanimous undivided unified affiliated agreed allied amalgamated assembled associated banded confederated conjugate incorporated pooled coadunate cognate collective concordant congruent conjoint conjunctive corporate federal hooked up in accord in cahoots joined up like-minded lined up of one mind of the same opinion one plugged in tied in unitary divided separate uncoordinated separated connected joined related united cohesive adhesive close-knit tenacious breakable crumbling unconnected disjointed friable loose detached aggregate collated combined common compiled concentrated cumulative gathered grouped heaped hoarded joint massed mutual piled shared disjoint unshared mingled mixed uncombined accepted coincident communal communistic community commutual congruous conjunct constant correspondent customary general generic in common intermutual like popular prevailing prevalent public reciprocal social socialistic universal usual well-known widespread superior sophisticated refined noble high rare private particular singular uncommon excellent cultured aristocratic valuable unusual scarce noteworthy infrequent extraordinary abnormal specific individual commonest United took an L commonwealth country county crown division domain dominion dynasty empire field lands monarchy nation possessions principality province realm reign rule scepter sovereignty sphere state suzerainty sway territory throne tract area belt block city enclosure kingdom locality neck of the woods neighborhood parcel patch plot precinct quarter section sector square stretch township turf vicinity ward zone whole areas countries citizenry citizens community constituents grass roots homeland inhabitants land native land patria people polity populace public region society soil sovereign state terrain voters urbanity metropolis heaven Arcadia Canaan Elysium Promised Land Shangri-la Zion afterworld atmosphere azure beyond bliss dreamland ecstasy empyrean enchantment eternal home eternal rest eternity fairyland felicity firmament glory great unknown happiness happy hunting ground harmony heights hereafter immortality kingdom come life everlasting life to come next world nirvana paradise pearly gates rapture sky the blue transport upstairs utopia wonderland misery unhappiness hell sorrow dislike heavens King DOM took an L Kingdom efficiency intensity power spirit stamina strength toughness vitality activity animation application ardor birr dash drive effectiveness efficacy endurance enterprise exertion fire force forcefulness fortitude get-up-and-go hardihood initiative juice life liveliness might moxie muscle pep pizzazz pluck potency puissance punch spontaneity steam tuck vehemence verve vim virility vivacity zeal zest zing zip operativeness élan apathy impotence inability incompetence inefficiency lack laziness lethargy weakness cowardice dispiritedness dullness idleness inactivity indifference indolence ineffectiveness lifelessness powerlessness uselessness tiredness service electricity heat potential reaction pressure burn gravity friction current magnetism response dynamism rays wattage horsepower radioactivity voltage kilowatts conductivity peace question action agility alacrity alertness bag ballgame big idea bit business bustle commotion deal energy flurry functioning game going happening haste hoopla hopper in the works industry motion movement occupation operation plan process proposition racket rush scene stir stunt trip turmoil vigor rest unemployment yielding harmony slowness stoppage inertia cessation stiffness stillness repose quiet calmness calm surrender inaction ambition appetite aspiration avidity craving desire eagerness earnestness emulation enthusiasm fire in belly get up and go hankering hope hunger itch keenness longing love lust passion pretension push right stuff striving thirst yearning disinterest satisfaction humility diffidence contentment pessimism repulsion hatred hate distaste dislike disgust aversion ambitions animal spirits bounce exuberance frolicsomeness nervous spirits sportiveness spriteliness brio briskness buoyancy ebullience elation esprit excitement exhilaration fervor gaiety high spirits oomph sparkle sprightliness vibrancy zap discouragement depression unhappiness coldness coolness enervation sadness bound elasticity give rebound recoil resilience springiness took an L ENERGY Energy capability capacity function influence potential skill talent aptitude bent competency dynamism effectiveness efficacy endowment faculty gift potentiality qualification turn virtue impotence inability incapacity incompetence lack weakness failure inaptitude loss uselessness debility disability impairment inefficiency infirmity subservience surrender yielding strength force weight energy intensity vigor puissance potency omnipotence brawn sinew vim forcefulness muscle might arm voltage horsepower applied force mechanical energy powerlessness laziness inactivity lethargy right rule jurisdiction clout leadership authority privilege management sovereignty prestige law birthright predominance supremacy say-so paramountcy wire prerogative superiority sway hegemony direction steam regency domination authorization moxie diadem license ascendancy connection command dominion warrant inside track imperium strings subordination inferiority disadvantage action activity agility alacrity alertness animation bag ballgame big idea bit business bustle commotion dash deal enterprise flurry functioning game going happening haste hoopla hopper in the works industry life liveliness motion movement occupation operation plan power process proposition racket reaction response rush scene spirit stir stunt trip turmoil vitality vivacity rest unemployment peace harmony slowness dullness question stoppage inertia cessation indolence stiffness stillness repose quiet calmness calm apathy inaction idleness administration administering agency application charge conduct conducting control directing dispensation disposition distribution enforcement execution governing government guidance handling legislation order organization overseeing oversight performance policy provision regulation running strategy superintendence supervision surveillance neglect mismanagement disregard ignorance lawlessness disorganization advantage aid asset assistance avail blessing boon break choice comfort convenience dominance edge eminence expediency favor gain good gratification help hold improvement interest lead leeway leg-up leverage luck mastery odds position pre-eminence precedence preference prevalence profit protection recognition resources return sanction starting support upper hand utility wealth handicap bad fortune stop waste block restriction obstacle drawback misfortune bad luck obstruction hindrance blockage disfavor injury hurt harm disapproval advantages agent cause channel factor means medium organ vehicle end agents took an L powers comprehensive international overall universal all-around all-inclusive all-out blanket catholic cosmic cosmopolitan earthly ecumenical encyclopedic exhaustive general grand mundane pandemic planetary spherical sweeping thorough total unbounded unlimited world local particular specific individual limited across-the-board all all-embracing all-encompassing broad broad in content complete encompassing everything extensive global including all categories including all members panoptic wide widespread all-round broad-spectrum expansive extended far-reaching inclusive wide-ranging wide-reaching far-ranging large broad-minded charitable diffuse eclectic generic indeterminate large-scale liberal open-minded receptive tolerant unbigoted unprejudiced unsectarian whole world-wide partial narrow narrow-minded exclusive absolute across the board compendious comprising containing discursive encircling full in depth infinite lock stock and barrel of great scope synoptic the big picture the whole shebang the works umbrella wall-to-wall definite circumscribed short empty selective imperfect restricted unfinished needy incomplete cosmogonal cosmogonic empyrean grandiose huge immense measureless vast worldwide minute little small bounded tiny teeny miniature GLOBAL took an L Global adjustment advance development difference diversity innovation modification reversal revision revolution shift switch transformation transition variation about-face addition break compression contraction conversion correction distortion diversification metamorphosis modulation mutation novelty permutation reconstruction refinement remodeling surrogate tempering transmutation turn turnover variance variety vicissitude bill agreement uniformity dollar similarity sameness stagnation turnaround interchange exchange trade flip-flop swap quarters silver chicken feed pin money pocket money spending money copper pennies coins nickels dimes evolve reduce resolve reform vary transform shape adjust modify diminish fluctuate alter transmute naturalize reorganize replace renovate commute diverge redo remodel substitute regenerate alternate revolutionize modulate adapt translate mutate transpose metamorphose warp transfigure accommodate convert moderate vacillate veer merge recondition diversify temper remake make innovations make over restyle tamper with hold continue keep leave alone stay extend expand persist disarrange ruin destroy preserve stagnate remain increase grow reverse remove barter invert displace supplant transmit switch around 180 degree turn U-turn change change in direction changeabout double doubleback overturning policy change repeal retraction turnabout volte-face acclimate accustom come around comply conform familiarize fashion fit get act together get used to grow used to habituate harmonize make match play the game prepare qualify readjust reconcile revise roll with punches shape up square suit tailor unfit disturb disagree neglect disorder dislocate reject refuse adapting affect act on impinge impress induce influence inspire interest involve move overcome perturb prevail regard relate stir sway touch upset discourage order surrender calm dissuade affects caponize castrate desexualize emasculate fix geld mutilate neuter spay unsex sustain retain maintain took an L changes Change bake heat melt prepare thaw toast warm up chafe cook fix microwave put on the fire warm over freeze chill cool comforting abating allaying alleviating analeptic assuaging consolatory consoling curing encouraging freeing health-giving heart-warming inspiriting invigorating lightening mitigating reassuring refreshing relieving remedying restoring revitalizing softening soothing succoring sustaining tranquilizing upholding warming worrying aggravating upsetting irritating disturbing distressing dispiriting depressing heating baking boiling broiling cooking grilling melting roasting scalding steaming freezing cooling refrigeration calming easing pacifying palliative relaxing took an L
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